Partial results from across the nation of 85 million people showed major advances for the Republican People’s Party (CHP) at the expense of Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP).
Turkiye’s main opposition party retained its control over key cities and made huge gains elsewhere in Sunday’s local elections, preliminary results showed, in a major upset to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who had set his sights on retaking control of those urban areas.
With more than 80 percent of ballot boxes counted, incumbent Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, of the Republican People’s Party, or CHP, was leading by a wide margin in Turkiye’s largest city and economic hub, according to the state-run Anadolu Agency. Mansur Yavas, the mayor of the capital, Ankara, retained his seat with a stunning 25-point difference over his challenger, the results indicated.
The vote was seen as a barometer of Erdogan’s popularity as he sought to win back control of key urban areas he lost to the opposition in elections five years ago. The CHP’s victory in Ankara and Istanbul in 2019 had shattered Erdogan’s aura of invincibility.
The main battleground for the 70-year-old Turkish president was Istanbul, a city of 16 million people where he was born and raised and where he began his political career as mayor in 1994.
The result came as a boost for the opposition, which was left divided and demoralized after a defeat to Erdogan and his ruling Islamic-oriented Justice and Development Party, or AKP, in last year’s presidential and parliamentary elections.
“The voters decided to establish a new political order in Turkiye,” CHP leader Ozgur Ozel told a crowd of jubilant supporters. “Today, the voters decided to change the 22-year-old picture in Turkiye and open the door to a new political climate in our country.”
A large crowd, meanwhile, gathered outside Ankara City Hall to celebrate Yavas’ victory. “Ankara is proud of you!” supporters chanted.
Sinan Ulgen, director of the Istanbul-based Edam think tank, said “the surprising outcome” was due to voters wanting to punish the ruling party over the “depth of an economic malaise.” Skyrocketing inflation has left many Turkish households struggling to afford basic goods.
AKP supporters opted to stay away from the ballot stations or voted for other parties, Ulgen said.
“Turnout was relatively low compared to past elections,” he said. “There were cross-party shifts in the vote, which did not happen in the nationals elections because of stronger ideological attachments. This time around the economy prevailed over identity.”
Some 61 million people, including more than a million first-time voters, were eligible to cast ballots for all metropolitan municipalities, town and district mayorships as well as neighborhood administrations.
Turnout was around 76 percent, according to the state-run Anadolu Agency, compared to 87 percent last year.
Some 594,000 security personnel were on duty across the country to ensure the vote goes smoothly. Nevertheless, one person was killed and 11 others hurt in the city of Diyarbakir where a dispute over the election of a neighborhood administrator turned violent, the state-run Anadolu Agency reported. At least six people were also injured in fighting that erupted in the nearby province of Sanliurfa.
“According to the data we have obtained, it seems our citizens’ trust in us, their faith in us has paid off,” Imamoglu said.
Imamoglu won 50.6 percent of the votes in Istanbul, while AKP candidate Murat Kurum, a former urbanization and environment minister, received 40.5 percent, according to Anadolu. Opinion polls had pointed to a close race between the two.
Imamoglu, a popular figure touted as a possible future challenger to Erdogan, ran without the support of some of the parties that helped him to victory in 2019. Both the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party and the nationalist IYI Party fielded their own candidates in the race.
A six-party opposition alliance that was led by CHP disintegrated after it failed to oust Erdogan in last year’s election, unable to capitalize on the economic crisis and the government’s initially poor response to last year’s devastating earthquake that killed more than 53,000 people.
Ulgen said the result has thrust Imamoglu into the role of possible leader of the opposition to challenge Erdogan for the presidency in 2028.
“This outcome has certainly been a watershed for Imamoglu,” he said. “He will emerge as the natural candidate of the opposition for the next round of presidential elections.
A new religious-conservative party, the New Welfare Party, or YRP, appeared to have attracted votes from AKP supporters who have been disillusioned with the government’s handling of the economy.
In Turkiye’s mainly Kurdish-populated southeast, the DEM Party was on course to win many of the municipalities but it’s unclear whether it would be allowed to retain them. In previous years, Erdogan’s government removed elected pro-Kurdish mayors from office for alleged links to Kurdish militants and replaced them with state-appointed trustees.
Analysts said a strong showing for Erdogan’s party would have hardened his resolve to usher in a new constitution — one that would reflect his conservative values and allow him to rule beyond 2028 when his current term ends.
Erdogan, who has presided over Turkiye for more than two decades — as prime minister since 2003 and president since 2014 — has been advocating for a new constitution that would put family values at the forefront.
Istanbul’s mayor, the opposition’s Ekrem Imamoglu, claimed re-election with nearly all ballot boxes opened, telling a euphoric crowd of supporters: “Tomorrow is a new spring day for our country.”
Final results are expected to be released on Monday by the country’s electoral commission.
Erdogan, 70, had launched an all-out personal campaign to win back Istanbul, the economic powerhouse where he was once mayor. Rampant inflation and an economic crisis have, however, hit confidence in the ruling party.
Large crowds filled the square outside the opposition party’s Istanbul city headquarters waving Turkish flags and lighting torches to celebrate the result.
After casting his vote, Imamoglu emerged to applause and chants of “Everything will be fine,” the slogan he used when he first took the city hall from the AKP in 2019.
The 52-year-old is increasingly seen as the biggest rival to Erdogan’s AKP ahead of the next presidential election in 2028.
In Ankara, mayor Mansur Yavas — also of the CHP — claimed victory in front of large crowds of supporters, declaring “the elections are over, we will continue to serve Ankara.”
“Those who have been ignored have sent a clear message to those who rule this country,” he added.
Yavas led with 58.6 percent of the vote to 33.5 percent for his AKP opponent, with 46.4 percent of ballot boxes opened.
Opposition supporters celebrated victory in Izmir, Turkiye’s third-largest city, as well as in the southern city of Antalya.
Some AKP stronghold towns were at risk of being lost, results indicated.
“Voters have chosen to change the face of Turkiye,” said CHP chairman Ozgur Ozel as the results emerged.
“They want to open the door to a new political climate in our country.”
Erdogan acknowledged the electoral setback in a speech to supporters at the headquarters of his party.
“Unfortunately, we have not obtained the results that we wanted,” he told a subdued crowd.
“We will of course respect the decision of the nation. We will avoid being stubborn, acting against the national will and questioning the power of the nation,” he added.
Erdogan has been president since 2014 and won a new term in May last year. He had called Istanbul the national “treasure” when launching his campaign to retake the city.
But while he dominated the campaign, his personal role did not help overcome the widespread concerns over the country’s economy.
“Everyone is worried about the day-to-day,” said 43-year-old Istanbul resident Guler Kaya as she voted.
“The crisis is swallowing up the middle class. We have had to change all our habits,” she said. “If Erdogan wins, it will get even worse.”
Although opposition parties had been fractured ahead of the poll, analysts predicted a stormy political future for the AKP and its allies.
Berk Esen, an academic at Sabanci University, said that the CHP had pulled off “the biggest election defeat of Erdogan’s career.”
“Despite an uneven playing field, government candidates have lost even in conservative strongholds. This is the CHP’s best results since the 1977 elections,” Esen said on his social media account.
“Whoever wins Istanbul, wins Turkiye,” Erman Bakirci, a pollster from Konda Research and Consultancy, recalled Erdogan once saying.
The election was held with the country reeling from an inflation rate of 67 percent and having seen the lira currency slide from 19 to a dollar to 32 to a dollar in one year.
Clashes were reported in Turkiye’s Kurdish-majority southeast, leaving one dead and 12 wounded, a local official told AFP.
The pro-Kurdish DEM party said it had identified irregularities “in almost all the Kurdish provinces,” in particular through suspicious cases of proxy voting.
Observers from France were refused access to a polling station in the region, according to the lawyers’ association MLSA.
About 61 million people were eligible to vote for mayors across Turkiye’s 81 provinces, as well as provincial council members and other local officials.
